Source

BACI / CEPII — HS22 revision, full-year 2024. Bilateral trade flows between every exporter and every importer at the HS6 product-code level. Values in USD FOB; quantities in tonnes (m³ for gases).

Calculation

For a given importer × commodity, we sum every inbound BACI flow matching the commodity's HS6 code(s). "From Gulf+Iran" restricts the exporter to the 7 countries below. "% of imports" is the straight ratio:

Total imports = Σ (BACI value) over all exporters × matching HS6 codes
Gulf imports = Σ (BACI value) restricted to Gulf+Iran exporters
% = ( Gulf imports ÷ Total imports ) × 100

Gulf+Iran exporters (7)

Saudi Arabia · UAE · Kuwait · Qatar · Bahrain · Oman · Iran

HS6 codes tracked

Crude 2709 · Refined 2710 · LNG 2711.11 · LPG 2711.12-19 · Bitumen 2713.20 · Sulfur 2503 · Helium 2804.29 · Urea 3102.10 · Ammonia 2814.10 · DAP 3105.30 · Aluminum 7601 · Methanol 2905.11 · MEG 2905.31 · Ethylene 2901.21 · PP 3902 · PE 3901 · p-Xylene 2902.43 · Styrene 2902.50 · MTBE 2909.19

Tier 1 Consumption Data — Official series Crude Petroleum · Refined Petroleum · LNG · LPG

Directly from the EIA International Energy Statistics (bulk INTL, 2024). For refined petroleum / LNG / LPG we use the published "consumption" series (already net of exports). For crude, we use apparent consumption because EIA has no direct series:

Apparent Consumption = (Production + Imports − Exports)
% = ( Gulf imports ÷ (Production + Imports − Exports) ) × 100

Tier 2a Consumption Data — USGS apparent Sulfur · Helium · Aluminum · Ammonia

Production comes from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 (2023 estimate, fallback 2022). Trade flows come from BACI. Units normalized to tonnes before comparison.

Apparent Consumption = (Production + Imports − Exports)
% = ( Gulf imports ÷ (Production + Imports − Exports) ) × 100

Unit conversions: Sulfur/Aluminum kt × 1000 → t · Helium million m³ × 178.57 → t (at 5,600 m³/t) · Ammonia kt contained N ÷ 0.82 → physical NH₃ kt.

Tier 2b Consumption Data — FAOSTAT Fertilizers by Product Urea · DAP

Primary (used when country data exists). FAOSTAT publishes per-country Agricultural Use of each fertilizer product in tonnes of the product itself — the cleanest apples-to-apples match for urea and DAP consumption. Coverage: ~164 countries for urea, ~134 for DAP (latest year 2022/2023).

% = ( Gulf imports of [urea|DAP] [t] ÷ FAOSTAT Agricultural Use of [urea|DAP] [t] ) × 100

Fallback (nitrogen proxy). For countries FAOSTAT's product-level series omits, we use the older nitrogen-content method — compare the N content of Gulf urea/DAP shipments to the country's total nitrogen agricultural use:

N in Gulf imports = (Gulf tonnes × N fraction)  [urea 46%, DAP 18%]
% = ( (Gulf tonnes × N fraction) ÷ (FAOSTAT total N agricultural use) ) × 100

Tier 3 Consumption Data — Import-share fallback Methanol · MEG · Ethylene · PP · PE · p-Xylene · Styrene · Bitumen · MTBE

No free per-country consumption data exists for these petrochemicals, so we show Gulf share of total imports tagged PROXY. This is the % of the country's imports (not consumption) that originate in the Gulf.

% = ( Gulf imports ÷ (Total world imports) ) × 100